Month: October 2025

Bloomberg: Nassim Taleb Warns to Hedge Against Crash as Debt Crisis Looms

On By In Economics, Statements

(Bloomberg) — author Nassim Taleb said investors should insure against a stock-market crash as structural issues such as the US debt burden threaten to derail an otherwise unstoppable rally.

Even with US stocks making multiple record highs and corporate profits surging, Taleb, a distinguished scientist for hedge fund Universa Investments, warns that the real danger now comes from visible risks, so-called “white swans,” that most people ignore until it’s too late.

Read the full article: finance.yahoo.com/news/nassim-taleb-warns-hedge

[Substack] Medical Mistakes with Probability, 1

On By In Academic, General, Statements

Max Heart Rate

When you do a stress test, say the Bruce Protocol, the administering doctor relies on something called the “age predicted maximum heart rate”, usually 220 minus your age, or some formula slightly more complicated but equally unrigorous. Once you reach that point, they stop, depriving you of potent information — at low risk since they are monitoring via live ECG your cardiac strain. In fact, such an estimation based on age, no matter how complicated its computation, appears to explain only 20% of the variation between individuals. I believe that explained variations are even smaller for, clearly, in the graph above, to the right, samples above 55 are sparce and the expected maxima would be considerably higher.

I noticed this myself as I am easily able to reach the 170s without feeling strain, guessing the effective max would be in the 180s (next test, but would require some live ECG for caution).

Continue reading on Substack – open.substack.com/pub/nntaleb/p/medical-mistakes-with-probability