At the 2022 Greenwich Economic Forum-Miami, Black Swan author, Nassim Nicholas Taleb explains why correlation is unreliable as a due diligence tool. Coming as it does during an ongoing pandemic and in the middle of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Taleb also discusses Wars and Pandemics and puts them into their proper risk buckets.
… simply said> ” because it is a correlation, not an proof and there is a negative one, too…
Between the congress of Vienna and the First World War, there was the Franco-Prussian war which IMHO had a big impact in French and German minds
Maybe better to compare flu statistics of the 1950’s with coved statistics, if both are reliable?