Nassim Criticizes Nate Silver’s Election Predictions on Twitter

1/@FiveThirtyEight : 55% “probability” for Trump then 20% 10 d later, not realizing their “probability” is too stochastic to be probability.

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 6, 2016

2/ So @FiveThirtyEight is showing us a textbook case on how to be totally *clueless* about probability yet make a business in it.

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 6, 2016

3) More technically, when the variance of the probability is v. high it converges to 50%. Kapish? (metaprobability).

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 6, 2016