1/@FiveThirtyEight : 55% “probability” for Trump then 20% 10 d later, not realizing their “probability” is too stochastic to be probability.
— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 6, 2016
2/ So @FiveThirtyEight is showing us a textbook case on how to be totally *clueless* about probability yet make a business in it.
— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 6, 2016
3) More technically, when the variance of the probability is v. high it converges to 50%. Kapish?
(metaprobability).— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 6, 2016
4) Quick explanation of mechanism & why @FiveThirtyEight should stop confusing the public. (sorry for mistakes) pic.twitter.com/LghTxDRN3b
— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 6, 2016
To remove the verbose psychoBS, this is the rigorous way to deal with elections. @AHDidea @PTetlock pic.twitter.com/0mXzIuw17l
— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 8, 2016
(cont) a tutorial on standard way to look at elections. Updating proportional to square root of time to elections. pic.twitter.com/gbq1pqtkEJ
— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 8, 2016
(cont) More expamples pic.twitter.com/LtUKpQrJ3V
— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 8, 2016
Simulations of election processes over 100 days, in Blue is How to Not Update proba a la @FiveThirtyEight. Clueless! pic.twitter.com/zUfnNTnji6
— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 8, 2016
