James Surowiecki talks with Nassim Taleb about the current state of the economy and the dangers of debt.
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Original link provided by Taleb: http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/EdSmith.pdf
In November of 2012, immediately after U.S. Federal Reserve Bank Chairman, Ben Bernanke announced the implementation of Quantitative Easing II, Nassim Taleb contacted Bloomberg News interviewer, Erik Schatzker to say “Something has to be done about Ben Bernanke”.
Foreign Policy has an article on their website with reflections from Nassim touching on Fragility/Antifragility, the stability of countries, city-states and decentralizing government, Lebanon, the European Union, and US deficits, titled Epiphanies from Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb has made a career of going against the grain, and he has been successful enough that the title of his book The Black Swan is a catchphrase for global unpredictability far beyond its Wall Street origins. Born in Lebanon, he weathered the first few years of the civil war in the late 1970s reading
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Just posted on Nassim’s Facebook Wall:
Nassim Nicholas Taleb Looks like a preview of what to expect from the economics and econophaster establishment. Davies is the gentleman there; others have not even given a simple thougth to model error and which domains are affected by it. But asking people to explain insults can lead to pleasant surprises.
When Taleb met Davies:
This morning, Nassim Taleb returned to Twitter, posting one of the technical appendices to his new book. And immediately he got into a wonderfully wonky twitterfight/conversation with Daniel Davies.
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Nassim Taleb has posted a link to the technical Appendix II of his new upcoming book Antifragile on his website.
On his Facebook Page Nassim Taleb has linked to a new note on his Philosophical Notebook page on his website.
Link (note 150): http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm
Nassim has released the “Medicine and Convexity (Antifragility), a summary (technical) sheet” on his Facebook Page.
A brief explanation of nonlinearities as detection of risk in medicine (from antifragile), directly from mathematical necessities, or the ideas behind Antifragile.
Link (PDF): http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/medconvex
October 2012 In the presence of a layer of metaprobabilities (from metadistribution of the parameters), the asymptotic tail exponent corresponds to the lowest possible tail exponent regardless of its probability. The problem explains “Black Swan” effects, i.e., why measurements tend to chronically underestimate tail contributions, rather than merely deliver imprecise but unbiased estimates.
Nassim Taleb has shared a new paper in PDF form on his Facebook Page titled: How We Tend To Overestimate Powerlaw Tail Exponents
In the presence of a layer of metaprobabilities (from metadistribution of the parameters), the asymptotic tail exponent corresponds to the lowest possible tail exponent regardless of its probability. The problem explains “Black Swan” problems, i.e., why measurements tend to chronically underestimate tail effects, rather than merely deliver imprecise but unbiased estimates.