Nassim Taleb has linked to a new paper on his Facebook Page: How We Tend To Overestimate Powerlaw Tail Exponents
October 2012 In the presence of a layer of metaprobabilities (from metadistribution of the parameters), the asymptotic tail exponent corresponds to the lowest possible tail exponent regardless of its probability. The problem explains “Black Swan” effects, i.e., why measurements tend to chronically underestimate tail contributions, rather than merely deliver imprecise but unbiased estimates.
Nassim Taleb has shared a new paper in PDF form on his Facebook Page titled: How We Tend To Overestimate Powerlaw Tail Exponents
In the presence of a layer of metaprobabilities (from metadistribution of the parameters), the asymptotic tail exponent corresponds to the lowest possible tail exponent regardless of its probability. The problem explains “Black Swan” problems, i.e., why measurements tend to chronically underestimate tail effects, rather than merely deliver imprecise but unbiased estimates.
Lecture – Antifragile: How To Live In A World We Don’t Understand
Professor Nassim Nicholas Taleb talks about how systems, including evolution, can withstand shocks to them and are able to improve because of it and those systems that reject it, such as modern politics and banking.
Date: Wednesday 5th December 2012 at 6:30pm–8pm
Location: Sheikh Zayed Theatre, New Academic Building at London School Of Economics, London WC2A
London School Of Economics Houghton Street London, WC2A 2AE Phone: 020 7405 7686 Website: www.lse.ac.uk
Tickets: 020 7405 7686 (Free, ticketed)
Website Link: http://www.list.co.uk/event/20354307-antifragile-how-to-live-in-a-world-we-dont-understand-lecture/
From the website: Mr. Taleb will speak on current market trends and concerns, as well as geopolitical issues that might manifest themselves as critical shifts in market sentiment and direction.
Details: October 25, 2012 (1:00 PM – 2:30 PM) Fairmont Waterfront Hotel, 900 Canada Place Way Vancouver, British Columbia
Link: Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder – Event Summary
The Bloomberg Businessweek website has a feature piece on Robert Rubin, in the article Nassim is interviewed and shares his view on President Clinton’s former Treasury Secretary and former Citigroup executive.
“Nobody on this planet represents more vividly the scam of the banking industry,” says Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan. “He made $120 million from Citibank, which was technically insolvent. And now we, the taxpayers, are paying for it.”
Nassim Nicholas Taleb doesn’t know Rubin personally. He admits that his antipathy, like that of so many Rubin critics, is fueled by symbolism. “He represents everything that’s bad in America,”
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Nassim Taleb has released a paper with the IMF: A New Heuristic Measure of Fragility and Tail Risks: Application to Stress Testing
From Business Insider: NASSIM TALEB: The Fed Is Looking At The Banking System All Wrong
Nassim Taleb has long been a critic of traditional forecasting methods like the ones underlying these stress tests. He even coined a now oft-repeated term to capture his criticism – “black swan” – which became a huge New York Times bestselling book.
Now, he warns that “fragility is especially high for the banks with the worst outcomes” according to a new metric he’s
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Nassim Taleb has released a technical note for Antifragile on his Facebook Page: Why the One Percent of the One Percent benefit from inequality more than general prosperity: A Note for AntiFragile.
The one percent of the one percent of the population is vastly more sensitive to inequality than total GDP growth (which explains why the superrich are doing well now, and should do better under globalization, and why it is a segment that doesn’t correlate well with the economy). For the super-rich, one point of GINI causes an increase equivalent to 6-10% increase in total income (say, GDP).
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A reader has sent in a copy of Nassim’s Lecture notes from when he was teaching a course at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA in 2005. The course/lecture series are titled: Randomness, Decisions, and Human Nature (SOM 797R – SYLLABUS).
Unfortunately all the links within the PDF are missing, if anyone has a copy with all the working links to studies, research papers, books, articles, images, etc, please let us know!
>> Check it out here.
Nassim Taleb will be speaking at the University of East Anglia as part of their 2012 Philosophy Public Lecture Series on Philosophy and the Economic Crisis.
The talk is scheduled for Thursday 27th of September 2012 and is titled “Opacity, Asymmetries and Ethics”. It will be held in LT2 and begin at 6.30pm, and is free to attend for all.
See here for the website and contact information: http://www.uea.ac.uk/phi/eventsnews/publiclectures/public-lectures-2012