The Green Lumber Problem, outlined in Nassim Taleb’s upcoming book Antifragile, is essentially misunderstanding which facts are relevant vs those which are not in regards decision making under uncertainty.

From Nassim:

 

“In one of the rare noncharlatanic books in finance, descriptively called What I Learned Losing A Million Dollars, the protagonist makes a big discovery. He remarks that a fellow called Joe Siegel, the most active trader in a commodity called “green lumber” actually thought that it was lumber painted green (rather than freshly cut lumber, called green because it had not

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Nassim Taleb’s “Green Lumber Problem”

Posted on

August 9th, 2012

Category

General, Writing

Just spotted Nassim Taleb’s upcoming book Antifragile on Penguin Books UK website. The website shows a different cover to the stacked boxes in the post below, and has a different subtitle “How to Live in a World We Don’t Understand” which would presumably be  for the UK market. Publish date appears to be 27th of November 2012.

 

 

  Antifragile: How to Live in a World We Don’t Understand http://www.penguin.co.uk/nf/Book/BookDisplay/0,,9781846141560,00.html

Synopsis

In his global bestseller The Black Swan, Nassim Taleb explained the existence of high impact rare events beyond the realms

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Penguin Book: Antifragile (New Book Cover)

Posted on

July 27th, 2012

Category

General

Nassim has currently uploaded for free viewing the Prologue of his upcoming book Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder. 

Click here to check it out.

Antifragile joins the previous works of Nassim’s continued exploration of the concepts of risk, uncertainty, probability, and decision making (plus many others threads), all under the umbrella of how to live in a world we don’t understand. “It’s all the same book” he has said before. I appears he has turned his works into a trilogy of sorts The INCERTO (The Works on UNCERTAINTY: Antifragile, The Black

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Prologue for Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder

Posted on

July 25th, 2012

Category

General

Nassim recently did a short opinion piece in the The New York Times Room for Debate area titled Throw Out the Probability Models (April 2012).

It covers his typical Black Swan message that we cannot predict these certain class of rare but consequential events and so we need to become robust to them rather then relying on forecasts. The economic models that we use to calculate the probability of these rare events needs to go out the window.

“What goes out of the window? The entire discipline of modern finance and

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NYT: Throw Out the Probability Models

Posted on

April 2nd, 2012

Category

Writing

Nassim gave this talk in April 2012 and if I am not mistaken it was the first official public introduction of the concept of Antifragile, however at the time Nassim had planned to call the book “Antifragility” and later changed it due to concerns from the publisher.

I love the introduction, asking the audience for the opposite of fragile. I have heard him do this a number of times when he first started introducing the idea, and everybody always says “robust”. The issue is now as the idea enters the common discourse he can no

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[VIDEO] Woodrow Wilson School (Princeton) — Economic Recovery: Perils, Politics, and Possibilities

Posted on

April 1st, 2012

Category

General, Videos

The Predictability of Unpredictability from The RSA on Vimeo.

Renowned academic and author Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses his groundbreaking ideas and their relevance to the current economic crisis, national policy making and other topics with Rohan Silva, senior policy advisor to the Prime Minister.

Watch on YouTube | Audio Download | Video Download | Nassim’s Presentation (PDF) | Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s Biography on RSA

[VIDEO] RSA: The Predictability of Unpredictability

Posted on

December 1st, 2011

Category

Audio, Videos

At the The Deloitte Innovation Growth Track program in January 2011 employees were given the opportunity to ask Nassim Taleb some questions. The program in the Netherlands, covered eight sessions on different topics with speakers specialising in these themes.

1) ‘If Black Swans happen more today than we think, why is man so poorly adapted to rare and improbable events?’

2) ‘What has been the largest Golden Swan in 2010?’

3) ‘How can we assist out clients in identifying their own Black Swans?’

Deloitte Innovation Growth Track: Three Questions to Nassim Taleb

Posted on

January 6th, 2011

Category

Videos

Michael Elliot interviews Nassim for TIME Magazine back in December 2010 for the release of his book The Bed of Procrustes.

Questions: You’re a trader and a very successful one, do you think the sensationalized stock-market programming offered by the likes of CNBC and others has affected investor behaviour and market efficiency? (Toby Whitby, Houston) You warned us about the financial crisis, and your prediction was right. Can you foresee any other crisis that will happen in the near future? (John Hughes, Woodinville, Wash) Black-swan events are generally extreme outliers. Is it possible to profit

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10 Questions for Nassim Taleb from TIME Magazine

Posted on

December 3rd, 2010

Category

Videos

Nassim Taleb Speaks to a Clueless Congress (Part 1 of 2)

Nassim Taleb Speaks to a Clueless Congress (Part 2 of 2)

Taleb tries to inform a group of economically ignorant legislators. Congress is completely clueless in regards to simple concepts such as “risk”. Taleb mentions that our society is “over-financialized” because debt to GDP has grown to unsustainable levels and that our children and grandchildren will be punished for the foolish risks that government has taken with deficit spending, drastically increasing public debt, and central

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Nassim Taleb speaks to Congress on Value at Risk (VaR)

Posted on

June 1st, 2010

Category

Videos