Micro Mooc #3. The law of large numbers is the most important thing in life and science. It is the basis of epistemology and problem of induction. How many observations do you need to know if something is true? We get into the plumbing and show how it is too slow under fat tails. This is a simplified (but technical) presentation of a segment of “Probability and Risk in the Real World”, the Technical Companion for The Black Swan http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FatTails.html
A quick tutorial introducing the idea of Fat Tails in about 8 minutes, as simply as possible. Fat Tails make us understand the world much less than we think; they make much of the quantitative results in social “science” anecdotal (or worse, negative information).
The main (more complicated) text is at http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FatTails.html
A definition of fragility from Part V of Antifragile by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and technical papers. This is simplified.
This starts a series of micro Moocs. The aim is an intuitive discussion of technical points in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s Antifragile. Sort of Video footnotes.