What can we learn from Mr Dawkins’ errors and misuse of probability?
Nassim has posted a link on his Facebook Page Chapter 1 of the Technical Companion for the INCERTO: An Introduction to Fat Tails and Turkey Problems:
Antifragility: A User’s Manual
Learn to thrive in a volatile and complex world by creating “antifragile” organizations that thrive on stress and disorder
A two-day program for senior management
November 4th and 5th, 2013
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Distinguished Professor, Polytechnic Institute of New York University
Yaneer Bar-Yam, President and Professor, New England Complex Systems Institute
Facebook is the perfect platform for eccentric author Nassim Taleb, whose knack for thinking outside the box and waxing poetic is unparalleled.
Here’s how the acclaimed author of “The Black Swan,” describes his Facebook account: “This is for philosophical discussions. Please, no finance (or similarly depraved topics), and no journalists.”
I’ve recently read the book Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. It’s obviously not a diet book, but the principles in it are highly relevant to weight loss.
But first, a bit of background. We are all familiar with things that are fragile. If you drop a Ming vase from a height, it shatters. Something that is resilient on the other hand, when dropped from a height withstands stress. An example might be an iron bar.
But until now, we didn’t really have a word for something that gets stronger when it’s placed under stress. That’s why Mr Taleb coined the term “antifragile”.
A good example of antifragility is the system of airline safety. Notwithstanding a few recent tragic examples, air travel gets safer and safer every year. The reason being that every time there is a crash, the incident is scrutinised, causes are elucidated and then measures are taken to try and avoid it happening again. Every air crash makes the next one less likely.
In other words, the system is set up to respond positively to negative things. Every bad incident makes the overall system stronger.
From: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, New York.
To: Stewart Brand, Sausalito
3 July 2013
I would like to reply to Brian Eno’s important letter by proposing a methodology to deal with risks to our planet, and I chose you because of your Long Now mission.
First let us put forward the Principle of Fragility As Nonlinear (Concave) Response as a central idea that touches about anything.
Read the rest: http://longplayer.org/what/whatelse/letters.php